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1. Introduction :
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy.
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown.
2.1 Energy Supply:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
2.2 Energy Consumption:
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
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3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited – Expensive]
Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
a). Petroleum products:
In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.
b). Natural Gas:
Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop deforestation in hilly areas.
c). Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of good quality.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW).
3.2 Renewable Resources : (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)
Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
a). Hydro power:
Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
Current Hydropower stations:
Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MWMangla 1,000 MWWarsak 240 MWChashma 184 MW
Potential Hydropower stations:
Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW
Munda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MWKalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MWBunji Dam 5400 MWDasu Dam 3800 MW
3.3 Alternative Sources of Energy :
a). Wind:
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.
b). Solar :
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels.
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel :
Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar projects in twenty cities of country.
d). Tidal:
Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable, and sustainable energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has been made so far.
3.4 Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
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4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistan’s energy crisis traces its roots to following distinct causes :
- Growing Energy Demand
; over the years there is greater need of energy because of;
• increase in population,
• enhancement in lifestyle• industrial and agricultural growth• greater transportation needs
- Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy:
Pakistan has had wider potentials to tap energy, however, due to lack of any integrated/proactive planning, very less number of power producing plant were installed to meet futuristic demands. Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and supply drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500 MW.
- Imbalanced energy energy mix
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % - majority of which is imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and solar energy). Nuclear energy can
- Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:
o Thar Coal: Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175 billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer production. Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and economic prosperity to many families.
o Hydal power generation :
Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only 6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.
Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400 MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity. Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
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5. Consequences of Energy Crisis :
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed to shortfalls in energy supply.
ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards unemployment.
v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking, heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people and results in agitation against the government.
vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, moreorless, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the country.
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As per research, $50 per barrel price gives the value of our coal reserve as high as $30 trillion which goes to 187 times high as compared to current GDP of Pakistan. Current government has taken appropriate actions to produce the electricity from Thar coal and other resources during the three to five coming years. Recently, Sindh Government has contracted with a multi-national firm and work has been started to produce the 1000 mega watt electricity from the coal.
These power generating projects will save huge foreign currency which is spent on the import of oil. The second largest oil producing country Iran too is producing electricity from coal. China, in this time is producing 75% electricity with coal and is ready to help us produce electricity with coal. The strong lobby of multi-national oil companies didn’t let the plans of generating the electricity from wind and coal come into being.
In world level, the share of electric produced by the gas is 19% while in Pakistan 45%, nuclear energy’s share in world total energy is 16% while in Pakistan only 2%, hydro-generated electricity’s share into the world’s total energy share is 16% but in Pakistan 3.3% and from oil in world only 7% but in Pakistan is 16%. Poland and Germany produce the electricity more than 80% from coal. Likewise, South Africa 93%, India 78.3%, Australia 77%, China 72%, Germany 52%, America 49%, Denmark 47.3% and UK 32.9% produce the energy from coal. Pakistan produces only 200 mega watt from coal which is 7% of total energy production while the energy produced by coal should be up to 25%.
An important and natural resource of alternative energy is wind. Minimum 13 kilometer per hour wind blowing is supposed to be sufficient. By luck, we have the points for the production of wind energy which is available into the coastal areas of Karachi, Thatta, Jiwani and Baluchistan’s coastal belt and other areas situated into northern areas and Azad Kashmir. This time from wind Germany 18000 mega watt, USA 7000 mega watt, and Spain 8000 mega watt are producing the energy.
Wind energy is of importance as it does not create any environmental pollution at all. Solar energy is one of the cheapest and important way to produce the energy. As per scientists, the energy received from the sun in one hour is more than the whole world’s total produced energy in a year. As per analysis if only half percent of desert land is used for solar energy it would cater the energy demand for this entire world. Pakistan has much potential for solar energy because Pakistan is receiving 19 mega joules per square meter in a year through which 90% of rural area can be provided the electricity.
Like wise, geysers run by solar energy can reduce the demand of natural gas in the northern areas. Nuclear energy is also a cheap resource to attain the electricity. We are producing only 462 mega watt electricity from nuclear resources which is only 2% of our energy production by alternative resources. In the contrary, in the world 16% electricity is being produced by nuclear energy. Our natural gas reserves are finishing rapidly so therefore, it is necessary that electricity be produced by alternative resources and dependency over the natural gas could be lessened. If just 50% of alternative resources available in Pakistan is used so we can export the additional energy to neighbor states. No doubt self-sufficiency in energy is the first key in attaining the country-wide economical and social development.
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The power crisis is getting worse and various short-term solutions being offered are not the answer. Wapda’s chairman’s assessment that the power shortage will last until 2018 is optimistic when the increase in demand over the next seven years is factored in.
The power shortage is harmful to the country’s economy and it is pulling down Pakistan’s GDP growth. The funds spent on import of power generators and their fuel is an enormous drain on the economy. Larger industries can afford power generators, but small/medium enterprise, which are any nation’s primary growth engine, cannot. We need a solution to take care of Pakistan’s power requirements for the next 20 years. Expensive import-based, oil-run power generation is not the answer. These have already increased Pakistan’s fuel import bill. Gas based projects are also not the answer as the country’s gas supply is limited.
A possible home-grown, energy solution, based on wind and solar energy, can be used. Many countries in the world have implemented alternative energy programmes. Spain is already producing 73 per cent of its power needs from wind and solar energy. Though technology is still evolving for solar energy, a more immediate solution is wind energy. The Karachi to Gwadar coastline has enormous potential for generating wind energy. Wind towers can generate between 7,000 to 10,000 MW of electricity. There will be certain challenges to accomplish this, but all the solutions are within Pakistan’s grasp and we need not depend on foreign assistance.
The main challenges are production and availability of wind turbines, safety and security of turbines, transmission lines to feed the national grid, capital cost of the project and long-term maintainability of the project. India has started producing wind turbines domestically. It is not rocket science and Pakistani scientists can master this technology if mandated by the government. If our scientists can produce a nuclear weapon, they can produce wind turbines. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission should be entrusted to design and build these turbines. The facilities at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Kamra, Heavy Mechanical Complex and Karachi Shipyard can also be used. Once domestic needs are met, Pakistan could become a major exporter of wind turbines.
The solution for safeguarding wind turbines is to offer free electricity to those villages in Balochistan where wind turbines are installed. In return, villagers should be asked to ensure the safety of these turbines. The power consumption of these villages is likely to be minimal and this could also pacify the Baloch populace. Internationally, a five MW wind turbine costs around five million dollars. Pakistan should be able to produce these considerably cheaply, possibly at less than one million dollars. Wind turbines usually have a long life and as long as rotating parts are changed upon reaching their maximum life, wind turbines can last 50 years. Also, as wind turbines require no fuel, there is no running cost other than maintenance cost. With low initial and minimal running costs, electricity can be procured at a considerably lower price, avoiding the need to increase power rates frequently.
If Pakistan is to develop at a faster pace to attain a seven to eight per cent GDP growth, then it is imperative to address its energy needs. Pakistan is currently short by between 3,000 to 5,000 MW and if a major plan of action is not put into place now, the shortage is likely to be around 20,000 MW within 10 years. Wind energy is a fast and cheap solution. This programme should be given the same priority as Pakistan’s nuclear programme was once accorded.
Pakistan is in the grip of a serious energy crisis that is affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. As the situation stands to-day, there are hardly any immediate solutions to resolve the issue. A change of attitude and a change of life style is needed at the national level which should be triggered by the ruling elite and followed by all segments of the society that have access to electricity. At best there could be some short and long-term solutions to the crisis but they need immediate planning and execution with an enormous investment.
Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of attitude and change in lifestyles.
The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily.
Leaving lights and home appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellery, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable.
A further economy of 10-15 per cent can be achieved by introducing the second level of energy-conservation practices, especially in industry. Collectively, just through public education. With the help of effective electronic and print media campaigns the government can quickly educate the masses.
The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc) and luxuries (air conditioners, microwaves, etc). There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements.
We should utilize daylight as possible, and our government has already taken steps about it. An early start and early end is recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night. Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be ped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centers.
The ruling class should lead by example in matters of power conservation. If it does so the common man will follow suit. It is time for the elite to take energy-saving initiatives like abandoning the use of central air conditioning, travelling by special flights and irrelevant use of official transport.
If implemented they can not only avoid the collapse of a bankrupt energy infrastructure but also ensure progress. The bottom line is, in order to safely get through the current energy crisis the nation has to differentiate between its necessities and its luxuries.
Pakistan is rich in hydro resources of energy. According to an estimate the country has enough resources to generate approximately 40000 mw of hydro-electricity. However, presently it only generates 8000 mw of electricity against an installed capacity of 11327 mw. In addition the country can generate electricity with the help of wind and solar energy which has not yet been exploited to meet the energy deficit. Nuclear energy is yet another source of energy and at present PAEC produces 472 mw. It is far less than what PAEC should have been producing to meet the energy deficit.
Thermal power is mostly produced by burning either natural gas or imported oil. The country is yet to switch over to coal from the indigenous source of energy that is estimated to be the third largest in the world with a reserve of 33.0 trillion tons.
If load shedding is still unavoidable despite all these measures, WAPDA/KESC should organize the cuts in a sensible way to cause minimum discomfort. Load shedding schedules should be properly planned and announced.
The reasons behind energy crisis are poor management, lopsided priorities and lack of accountability on part of those who stay at the helm of affairs. We must try our best to adopt energy conservation as individual and at national level.
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7. Recomendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis :
Energy crisis can be curtailed by :
i). Reducing unnecessary energy use:o Usage of electricity saving devices
o Awareness campaign for energy savingo Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems and strengthening Pakistan railwayso Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)o Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are increasing prices of electricity.o Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
ii). Developing new energy resources :
o Tapping indigenous resources (Thar coal)
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plantso Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipelineso Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
o Utilizing alternative energy resources :
Wind power
Biodiesel /Biomass Solar Tidal
o Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity
8. References :
- Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
- Fact File : Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
- Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan, Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
- CSS Forum - CSS Examination Preparation & Civil Service of Pakistan
- Wikipedia
- energy crisis: what can we do?
- How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends
Pakistan's Energy Crisis and U.S. Interests
On 7 October 2001, the opening phase of "Operation Enduring Freedom" U.S. military campaign began, which quickly drove the Taliban and its al-Qaida affiliates from Kabul on 12 November.
Since then, 1,760 U.S. troops have been killed in Afghanistan along with 942 International Security Assistance Force soldiers, a total of 2,702 foreign military dead, with no end in sight.
In a March 2008 article Richard Holbrooke, then a foreign policy adviser in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, coined the term "Af-Pak" in an article to describe the broader regional context of military operations in Afghanistan, acknowledging that in order to win in Afghanistan, Pakistan to the east must be pacified as well.
Holbrooke's neologism was a belated acknowledgement that U.S. military operations had in fact begun across the Durand Line, the Afghan-Pakistan border in 2004, which Pashtuns on both side of the border have regarded as an artificial construct since its unilateral declaration by British authorities in India in 1893. In 2004 the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's Special Activities Division undertook the attacks on targets in northwest Pakistan using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) drones, primarily in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along northwest Pakistan's Afghan border.
Carried out with the connivance of Pakistani President Asif Zadari, the UAV attacks have intensified, greatly increasing anger throughout FATA.
Now however, there are faint glimmers of new thinking in Washington that two new weapons for the "hearts and minds" of Pakistanis may have appeared - the light bulb, and potable water.
If all goes well, then the U.S. government is to sign off on providing Islamabad with $1 billion to complete its Diamer-Bhasha dam, with the offer reportedly being finalized during the upcoming Pakistan-U.S. strategic dialogue on energy later this month. If approved, the project will be the U.S. government's largest foreign aid project to Pakistan.
The Diamer-Bhasha dam straddles the Indus River in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan region of occupied Kashmir. The Diamer-Bhasha dam when complete would both produce 4,500 megawatts of electricity as well as store 8.5 million acre feet of water that Pakistan could use for irrigation and drinking.
What is most extraordinary about Washington's purported efforts is not only that it is willing to delve into the Pakistani energy cesspool, but it is willing to do so in an area that has been contested by Pakistan and India since 1947, the major source of Muslim guerrilla insurgency for the last 64 years.
Apparently there are elements in Washington's bureaucracy realizing that Pakistan's population's increased access to reliable electricity and water sources are in fact useful corollaries to UAV strikes in wining "hearts and minds."
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It is not as if Pakistan's energy woes are new - since 2006 Pakistani energy analysts have warned of an impending energy crisis. Pakistan's government has implemented rolling blackouts across the country and earlier this year government officials announced that it will take at least seven years to build up electrical generation capacity to support the entire country. The black outs have taken a huge economic toll on Pakistan's textile industry and have resulted in plant shutdowns and layoffs.
Any U.S. aid will doubtless have a fair percentage of its money "diverted" - President Zadari, when merely Prime Minister Bennazir Bhutto's husband, was known as "Mr. Ten Percent' for his alleged take on foreign projects.
That said, the issue remains one of "hearts and minds," as the U.S., according to Holbrooke's comments, now increasingly view the "Ak-Pak" theater of military operations as a unified one.
So, what can Islamabad offer its disaffected population to support the central authorities?
Electricity and access to water could go a long way towards convincing incipient jihadis that their government does indeed care, and that supporting it as opposed to tacking it could produce further benefits.
Consider - the Obama administration for fiscal year 2012 is requesting $120 billion for military operations in Afghanistan, a figure which pales into insignificance alongside the modest $1 billion allocated to complete Pakistan's Diamer-Bhasha dam.
While doubtless a significant amount of this aid will disappear down Pakistani corruption ratholes (surprise), it would still seem on balance a bargain in every sense of the word, as jihadis could stay at home, read to their children after dark and cook their dinners, and electricity and water would seem to be more amenable elements in winning Pakistani "hearts and minds" than further Predator UAV strikes.
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Something to think about...
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