PROBLEM:
Energy is the most important sources for economic growth of a country. Unfortunately Pakistan has to face a major energy crisis in Natural gas, Power and Oil in next two to three years. This would delay the Economy of Pakistan (which is already in complexity). The high cost of the import of Oil, Construction of Big Dams, uncertain regional security environment attached with lack of national agreement to build dams are likely to delay quick resolution of energy crises. This energy deficit will lead to inflation. Similarly subsidies of billions of rupees have to be doped out “Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)” to bear loses. This would affect the national exchequer heavily.
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An Energy Crisis is threatening large in upcoming years. There is an expected short fall up to 50% because of increase in demand and supply gas up to 3,000 MW. Pakistan’s total energy requirement would increase by 48% to 80 million tons of oil equivalent in 2011.
Pakistan energy sector comprises of major sources with share of 50.4% of gas, followed by oil 29%, hydro electricity 11%, and coal 7.6%. Consequently, Pakistan imports energy to overcome the problem and maintain standard of living of people. The major shortfall is expected in natural gas supplies. Pakistan had 28 trillion cubic feet reserves of natural gas in 2006 but due to increase in its demand it is expected to be exhausted in next two decades.
Pakistan has a huge demand to generate power through oil but we can meet only 20% of our requirement through original production and rest of oil is imported from Gulf States and other countries of world. No major oil field so far has been discovered in last three decades. Oil demand is expected to double by 2015 and quadruple by 2025. This would lead to a amazing trade shortage, and growing of general prices.
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Pakistan has a total hydro potential of 40,000 MW against which it generates only 6500 MW. If the dams are not built there would be short fall of 40 million acre feet of water by the year 2006 and 108 million acre feet by 2013. Consequently power shortage will be up to 11,750 MV per year. It will affect agricultural, industry, and particularly the storage capacity of Mangla, Terbela and Chashma Dams will be reduced due to mud deposits.
Pakistan has world’s seven largest reserves of coal after discovery of THAR. These reserves are still untouched due to lack of technique in coal mining. Similarly solar and wind energy in coastal areas of Baluchistan and Sindh have a lot of potential to generate electricity but acquisition of technology at an enormous cost makes this a unbelievable source. Pakistan has only two nuclear plants providing two percent of electricity to our country. Population explosion is another cause of energy crises.
The government should make strategies to overcome the energy crises. The government plans to generate 7880 MW electricity by 2011 out of it 4860 MW is to be generated by firing natural gas. It should maximize the utilization of hydroelectric resources through building of dams such as KALABAGH DAM, BHASHA DAM etc. to produce cheap electricity. It should improve relations with international and Regional Corporation. It should activate in THAR coal project with the assistance of china to address energy crises. It should obtain new policies to overcome the problem through renewable energy resources: i.e. Solar, Wind and Tidal energy.
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It should take positive steps to finalize international gas pipe line projects i.e. IPI (India, Pakistan, Iran) Gas pipe line project which meet the needs of gas demands of Pakistan and possibly India.
It should make effort to fulfill the project with TURKEMANISTAN and AFGHANISTAN gas pipe line which was floated by TURKEMANISTAN in 1991 to meet the demands of gas for Pakistan. Similarly a Sharjah based company initiated and sponsored a gas import project through an offshore pipe line from QATAR TO PAKISTAN IN 1990 but it is still under consideration.
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CONCLUSION:
At present Pakistan is pursuing a multidimensional pro-longed strategy to ensure adequate and uninterrupted oil and gas supply and other energy resources to sustain the present pattern of energy for the rapid national economic growth. Greater reliance on gas, aggressive pursuit of hydroelectric power generation, and enhancing nuclear power generation capacity are some of the key elements of this strategy.
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Pakistan is also seeking to expand its primary energy supply base by encouraging oil exploration and power generation companies to undertake energy project in Pakistan. The regional gas pipe line projects in which Pakistan is actively pursuing to meet its expanding domestic energy demands.
These are the prerequisite for resolving energy crises that, unless resolved promptly, would cast a long shadow on the short and medium term objectives of economic growth and development.
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